Introducing the final Hockey Prospecting rankings of the top 32 for the 2025 draft! The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve (i.e., how much time do they have to make the big jumps prior to certain age milestones indicative of impactful NHLers), league-specific patterns/anomalies and reputation/rank with reliable resources. These are not scouting reports or a ranking of where we think players will actually be drafted. Rather, our rankings provide a glimpse into who we see making the NHL and becoming stars in the NHL, based on 30+ years of history and distinct pattern detection.
If you want to dive into the prospect model and why the players are ranked like they are, you can sign up here:
1. Anton Frondell, C, Allsvenskan
Perhaps surprising to most but Anton Frondell bubbles to the top of the Hockey Prospecting 2025 Top 32. Elite production in his pre-draft year (20s) as well as draft year (40s) coupled with his young May birthdate are generally always indicative of a significant forward. However, the fact that that production in his draft year came from a pro Euro league like Allsvenskan (which is criminally underrated… it’s a really strong league for very young prospects) is really what brings him to the top.
The only other forward to have a stat line that looks like this and did his best work in a pro Euro league in his draft year, with a young birthday, is Aleksander Barkov. It was a bit of a surprise when Barkov was taken 2nd overall, after MacKinnon in 2013, and he’s turned into a superstar and the Captain of the powerhouse Panthers. The only two forwards (of a younger variety like Frondell) to come out of Allsvenskan in their draft year with a comparable equivalency are W. Nylander and Pastrnak in 2014. I don’t imagine Frondell will go 1st overall, or even 2nd, maybe not even 3rd. But Frondell’s look in the model is extremely elite and should become a significant player.
2. Matthew Schaefer, D, OHL
Schaefer is the consensus #1 and likely goes at that spot. With all things being equal, I tend to lean towards forwards over dmen at 1st overall because of the additional production you get from them. But that being said, Schaefer looks the part of a future #1 star to superstar dman. Schaefer’s production in his draft year (which was only 17 games after a broken collarbone at the WJC took him out for the rest of the season) was as elite as you can get for the CHL. Schaefer is also incredibly young, born September 5th and is 10 days away from not being eligible until 2026.
Looking at any dman drafted over the last 40 years (probably ever) who were born from May to September 15th, Schaefer has the highest equivalency and is one of the youngest dmen ever to be drafted. Schaefer is also big and very mobile. Given how he already looks and that he is so much younger that his peers, I reckon Schaefer is going to be a monster in his prime. A dman that generates 50+ points a year that can also play in all situations and log 20+ minutes a night.
Worst case scenario: Jay Bouwmeester; best case scenario: Victor Hedman
3. Michael Misa, C/LW, OHL
Misa just had one of the most productive seasons in OHL history. He registered 134 points, 62 goals in 65 games (which gives him an equivalency of 51 in his draft year). Reaching an equivalency of 50+ in your draft year in any league is sensational stuff and should be treated as such. Maybe he got a boost from playing with Calgary Flames D prospect Zayne Parekh, that had himself a record season, becoming the 1st dman since Bobby Orr to register 30+ goal seasons in his draft year and D+1 season. But without that potential boost, Misa would have had a season that was warranted of a Top 5 selection.
Leveling up just boosted him into the Top 3 (and I would bet the house he will be taken inside of the Top 3). Coming out of the OHL, forwards to hit a 20+ equivalency in their D-1 and then a 50+ equivalency in their DY includes only: Eric Lindros (superstar), Connor McDavid (superstar) and Marco Rossi (TBD). For 3rd overall, that value is as good as it gets.
4. James Hagens, C, NCAA
James Hagens is the most interesting player in the draft. Hagens, in the NTDP in his pre draft year, was trending like one of those ‘certain superstars’ I speak of. These are the forwards that hits 40+ equivalency in their pre draft year and a 50+ equivalency in their draft year. Every forward that has ever done that has turned into a star and all of the ones to do so in the past 30 years turned into essentially point-per-game or more superstars. Hagens was still trending that way early on in 2024-25 (his draft year) while playing for Boston College in the NCAA. Then around Christmas time he fell off and never rebounded. He finished with an equivalency in the high 30s which is great for most players.
But Hagens was trending to be special. 1st overall special. And that fall off appears to have unilaterally (across almost every draft outlet) to have taken him out of 1st overall contention. Watching Hagens, he has extremely good puck control and roams around the offensive zone with the puck seemingly glued to his stick (and he never looks at it!). That 40+ equivalency in his pre-draft year is still really promising but the fall off is a touch concerning. The three above him are trending positive in every direction that I have to put them ahead of him but around 4th overall I’d certainly take a run at Hagens. He likely goes back to college next year and improves quite significantly and his draft season becomes less and less of a concern.
5. Jake O’Brien, C, OHL
Jake O’Brien feels very underrated. The model loves him. He had great production in his pre-draft year (20s) and draft year (30s). He’s big and young (born June 16th). He also plays the coveted center position and if everything breaks right he could be a 1C or certainly a very good 2C. The forwards that looked just like this over the past 35ish years made the NHL about 80% of the time. The majority of the misses tended to be smaller players like Kieffer Bellows, Nick Merkley and Vitali Abramov. O’Brien isn’t small and has very good ‘NHL size’ at 6’2’’.
So you very likely have an NHL player, and quite likely have a very good one. O’Brien feels like a Matthew Boldy (who looks identical to him). Boldy was drafted 12th overall and now is verging on becoming a superstar for Minnesota. O’Brien likely goes around a similar draft spot and could surprise teams down the road, wishing they drafted him.
6. Caleb Desnoyers, C, QMJHL
Desnoyers shot up the draft rankings throughout the year. And for good reason. He looks identical to O’Brien. Good sized, young, center with the 20s (D-1) and 30s (DY) equivalency growth pattern. I have O’Brien ranked one spot ahead because he’s two months younger but I could go either way here.
7. Porter Martone, RW, OHL
Martone likely goes in the top 5 rather than 7th where I have him. Martone, born October 26th (one of the oldest draftees), had pretty elite level production in his pre-draft year and draft year. Registering an equivalency of 29 in his pre-draft year and 42 in his draft year. He’s also 6’3’’ and 207 pounds so no worries of size hampering him at the next level. Players that look like this… they make the NHL almost every time, especially when drafted high and especially if they’re good size. So you’re getting an NHLer here. These architypes often turn into stars too (about 60% of the time). Some comps include: Keith Primeau, Tyler Seguin, David Vyborny, Daymond Langkow, Andrei Svechnikov, Pavel Dorofeyev and Owen Nolan.
8. Radim Mrtka, D, Czechia/WHL
Mrtka has a very unique draft year. He spent about half the year in the Pro Czechia league (where he didn’t do much in terms of production) and then spent the back half in the WHL with the Seattle Thunderbirds (where he had elite production, especially given his age). Usually if a player plays in multiple leagues in their draft year it’s a Euro who plays in various levels of the same feeder system within their own country (i.e., J20 vs. Allsvenskan vs. SHL in Sweden). Rarely do they come over to North America like this. There’s always the discussion if x Euro prospect was in the CHL, they would have cooked. And this almost never happens so you can never say definitively. However, now it actually happened. And I have a rule, which I follow religiously with the model. I take the numbers where the player showed best (equivalency wise), so long as they played at least 10 games in the league.
Well Mrtka had legitimate top 10 production in the WHL when he came over. Couple that with being 6’6’’ and pretty mobile for such a big body and the Summer birthday… Mrtka has a great profile in the model and probably should be looked at in the top 10. He has a very similar look to Dougie Hamilton and Luke Hughes.
9. Jackson Smith, D, WHL
Smith has a near identical look to Mrtka in the model. Young with the equivalency in the high teens/low 20s in their draft year. I chose Mrtka ahead because of the size and slightly younger birthday. Smith, for his part, is one of the consensus top ranking dmen in the draft and warrants it. He’s also a familiar Canadian product, from the WHL, that scouts have seen for years and have a good read on. He is likely the 2nd or 3rd dman drafted in 2025.
10. Benjamin Kindel, C/RW, WHL
Kindel has almost everything you want to see. He’s young (born in late April), had significant production in his pre-draft year and draft year and seemed to get better and better as the year went on. The one thing he doesn’t have is size. Standing at only 5’10’’. In the model, Kindel looks exactly like O’Brien and Desnoyers (ranked a few spots higher). I dropped him back behind O’Brien, Desnoyers, Martone and the two WHL dmen because of his size. Still has the elite profile in the model. But when you’re 5’10’’ or smaller you have a tougher road of making the NHL and becoming an elite talent. Kindel probably drops to the teens but there will certainly be less encouraging options taken before him. Somebody is going to get a steal.
11. Cole Reschny, C, WHL
The exact same profile and story as Kindel. Dropped him back because of his size. If he’s 3 inches taller I probably have him up 3 or 4 spots, right behind O’Brien and Desnoyers. Teams seem to be more and more intrigued by Reschny but he likely still doesn’t go in the Top 10. Another potential steal, like Kindel, given that a team will probably get him in the back 3rd of the 1st round. And the added intrigue of switching to the NCAA next year! If his equivalency levels up next year in NCAA, a league that is about 50% better than the WHL… that’ll really do wonders for his stock.
12. Victor Eklund, LW, Allsvenskan
Victor Eklund (William’s brother) is expected to follow suit of his brother and be drafted high in the 1st round. Eklund had really good but not elite normalized production in his draft year in the Allsvenskan league. Having an equivalency of 30+ in a pro Euro league in your draft year is a great sign of an NHLer. 78% of all Euro forwards to do so, excluding the newly drafted ones that we can’t confirm yet, made the NHL. But the equivalency in the 30s coupled with a non-productive pre-draft year and an older age doesn’t often lead to a star in the NHL.
Players like Alex Wennberg, William Eklund and Tomas Hertl had a similar profile to Eklund at the draft. Brother William, who is turning into a nice player for San Jose, was drafted 7th. William played in a harder league in his DY (SHL vs. Allsvenskan) and had better numbers in his D-1 as well. But, overall, they do have a relatively similar profile.
13. Cameron Reid, D, OHL
Reid has a great looking profile in the model. Looks similar to Mrtka and Smith. Dropped back a few spots due to reputation (isn’t regarded as a top 10 pick in most outlets… consensus rankings has him ranked around 20th ), size (6’0’’ is on the small end of a dman). As well, as the April birthday which is younger than most but doesn’t tend to have quite the boost like those Summer or early September birthdates have.
14. Carter Bear, C/LW, WHL
Bear is a later birthday. He has numbers in his draft year like O’Brien, Desnoyers, Kindel and Reschny but due to his age… the probabilities of making the NHL and turning into a star aren’t quite as high. Still there’s a number of players that look like Bear who are drafted every year and they often make the NHL and have significant careers. Model examples include: Dawson Mercer, Mikael Granlund, Matt Beniers, Brayden Point, Joel Farabee, Logan Couture and Nazem Kadri. Intriguing outside of the model is his two-way play. EP describes him as a strong defensive forward who is constantly backchecking, chasing down pucks and turning it the other way.
15. Brady Martin, C, OHL
Martin sounds like an absolute bulldog in scouting reports (bringing the puck up with force and bulling his way to scoring chances) and plays the always important center role. The reputation for Martin as well is very, very high, growing by the week as we get closer to the draft. Model-wise, Martin had an equivalency in the low 30s in his draft year and is a mid March birthday (which is in that grey zone between younger and older prospect). Don’t get a lot of stars from these archetypes and the scouting report for Martin screams agitating shutdown 2C who can chip in some offence (very Sam Bennett like). My one reservation is him going too high. There is legitimate talk he goes in the top 5, possibly 4th to Utah. With what will be left at that point, that feels like a bit of an overreach (similar to Sennecke going 3rd overall last year).
16. Lynden Lakovic, W, WHL
Lakovic has a similar model profile to a player like Victor Eklund (older draftee with an equivalency in the 30s in his draft year). Not many stars come from this group, about 1 in 6, but also a little less NHL possibility than Eklund as he’s coming from the CHL vs. pro Euro. But Lakovic is highly thought of (he likely goes from 10th to 15th). Lakovic has good size (6’4’’) which will certainly be a big draw to teams. I imagine he’ll go ahead of a few of the smaller high probability forwards I have listed before.
17. Justin Carbonneau, RW, QMJHL
Similar mold to Lakovic. Ranked just behind due to being a little smaller. Consensus rankings also has him slightly behind Lakovic.
18. Roger McQueen, C/W, WHL
I’m sure you were likely expecting to see McQueen quite a bit higher up than where he is, at the 18th hole. McQueen is massive (6’5’’) and has some ability to produce. However, the red flags for me is the birthdate, no big boost in production and his size. McQueen is two weeks removed from being as old as you possible can be for this draft. And, for being one of the oldest prospects in the draft, he didn’t improve much in terms of his equivalency from his D-1 to DY (playing in the same league). And he’s enormous. Much, much bigger than 99.9% of anybody he plays against in the WHL. Will his ability to produce diminish once he turns pro and can’t rely on his size to dominate? These three things together give me concern for McQueen. McQueen has been thought of as one of the best of the 2025 class for a few years. But he didn’t make the big jump typical of top picks, that turn into stars. And, given what will still be on the board, I think that should be taken into consideration with McQueen.
The forwards with this type of archetype rarely turn into stars or players driving a top line. Brady Tkachuk, similar size and drafted high, is the big exception. He looked very similar to McQueen and made the NHL right away and was effective right away, ultimately becoming a star and the Captain of the Senators. Kirby Dach, taken 3rd overall, looked similar too and if you were to do a redraft of 2019, Dach would not be the 3rd best player from the draft. Might not even crack the top 10.
While not all showing the same large size as McQueen, Dustin Brown, Robert Nilsson, Mike Richards, Wojtek Wolski, TJ Oshie, Zemgus Girgensons, Travis Konecny, Sam Steel, Brady Tkachuk, Kirby Dach and Peyton Krebs are some of the similar profiles selected in the 1st round over the past 25 years. Richards, Oshie and Konecny were/are stand out NHLers (all three were drafted at 24th overall where, given what would be left, they’d be fine value there). I’d be hesitant to take McQueen too early (i.e., Top 10) but past the first 3rd or half of the draft, given his reputation and size, he’s probably fair value.
19. Malcolm Spence, LW, OHL
Spence has the same profile as McQueen with good size as well (not quite at that McQueen level). Very high reputation for Malcolm Spence as well as he likely goes in the top 15. The same reservations I have for McQueen I have for Spence as well. I am curious to see him transition to the NCAA next year, with the new transfer agreement that has emerged between the CHL and NCAA in the past few months.
20. Cameron Schmidt, RW, WHL
From a pure model standpoint, Schmidt profiles better than all of Lakovic, Carbonneau, Martin, McQueen and Spence. He had really good production in his D-1 and DY. He’s noted as one of the fastest prospects in the 2025 draft as well. But he’s an older prospect and is listed at 5’7’’. Consensus sees him as more of a mid 20s pick, ~10 spots behind those five listed. The size is a bit of a concern, 5’7’’ is extremely small, that I’ve dropped him back. But the profile in intriguing. In all shapes and sizes, these archetypes tend to make the NHL often, and turn into stars about 1 out of ever 3 times. Schmidt looks very similar to Mac Swanson from 2024. Similar size and nearly identical profile. Swanson didn’t go until the 7th round whereas I don’t imagine Schmidt will make it past the 2nd round before being selected.
21. Ivan Ryabkin, C/LW, MHL/USHL
Ryabkin has had an interesting path leading up to draft day. Last year, playing in the MHL, he was putting up numbers indicative of players that almost always hit the NHL, with an equivalency already in the 30s. The only exception to this is when a player drops back in their draft year (often from league changes) and has a lower equivalency in their draft year. This is what happened to Ryabkin.
He had a brief sample of games in various Russian leagues and didn’t produce anything close to his D-1 numbers in any league. He switched over to the USHL in North America about 2/3 of the way through the season. And, while he didn’t get a full season in there, he didn’t blow the doors off that league either (ultimately landing with an equivalency in the mid 20s). Scott Gomez, Angelo Esposito, Colin Wilson, Zach Boychuk, Joey Hishon and Eduard Sale (all 1st rounders) all did this and, besides Gomez, you can probably say these players missed what they were supposed to be (Sale is still TBD but not trending great).
So at the start of the season, with just the D-1 season, I probably would have had Ryabkin as a top 10 pick, with significant potential. And now I’m very hesitant to take him that early. However, if he falls to the 20s, where typically it’s a 50/50 shot of even just making the NHL, you have to be looking at him. What if his DY was just a blip on the radar. A strange year in Russia where his usage wasn’t very high (was that because he was trying to get his way to North America and was being docked for it?). If he regains his previous form, and especially because he’s still pretty young (April born), this could be found money as a late 1st round pick.
22. Kashawn Aitcheson, D, OHL
Aitcheson has good size for a defender, above average production in his D-1 and DY, with an older birthdate (among the notable draftees for 2025 he is the oldest prospect available). Some not top 5 level 1st rounders that shared a similar profile: Niskanen, Ceci, McAvoy, Foote, Beaudin and Alexeyev. Probably have a reliable NHLer here but unlikely a star offensive defender.
23. Alexander Zharovsky, RW, MHL
The Russian leagues are always a bit of a mess, and although the MHL shows pretty well, I’ve been burned before by going to that league with an off the wall draftee. Zharovsky, good size and February born, had an equivalency in the low 30s. Similar profile to fellow Euro Eklund, but not really talked about at all. These players don’t turn into stars often, does happen, but at least often make the NHL. Usually they’re drafted inside the first 20 picks of the draft. He does have a consensus ranking in the 50s with some having him as high as the mid 30s. So he at least likely gets drafted in the first 3 rounds. Could be a sneaky add for a team in the 2nd or 3rd round (looking at you Carolina).
24. Jack Murtagh, C/LW, NTDP
Murtagh doesn’t have earth shattering production, and doesn’t have an elite profile in the model (with a DY equivalency in the mid 20s). However, Murtagh has good size (6’1’’), is versatile in that he can play wing or center and… that birthdate is really intriguing. Born August 22nd, he is one of the youngest forward prospects in the draft. There’s a lot of runway for Murtagh to grow and if he makes a couple production jumps over the next few years (ideally consecutively) while playing for Boston University he could really shoot up and be something for a lucky team down the road (especially if he gets to play significantly with Cole Hutson). A team likely gets him in the back half of the 1st round, maybe even the 2nd. He’ll be great value there.
25. Logan Hensler, D, NCAA
Hensler is an older D prospect (born October 14) with good but not great production. However, there’s few D options available high in this draft and Hensler is one of the better options after the top 4-5 are off the board. His consensus has him ranked around 17th, with Bob McKenzie (who’s is generally pretty spot on for how things actually go) has him at 11th. In terms of his production, he basically netted out with the same equivalency in his DY that he had in his D-1, which is a concern. However, he transitioned to the NCAA in his DY (which is the hardest league a N.A prospect can play in in their draft year… by far). So that’s encouraging that he was at least able to hold steady there. Very unlikely he’s a star but hopefully there’s a solid top 4 option with Hensler.
26. Sascha Boumedienne, D, NCAA
Nearly the identical situation as Hensler. High reputation, likely drafted in the back half of the 1st round, transitioned to the NCAA in his draft year and essentially stayed at the same spot. I have him one spot behind Hensler as his production actually fell back slightly and his consensus ranking has him about 12 spots back of Hensler.
27. Blake Fiddler, D, WHL
Big, high reputation dman with an above average equivalency and a July birthday. Here’s a look at some recent 1st round picks that looked similar: Alex Plante, Jake Gardiner, Duncan Siemens, Stuart Percy, Olli Maatta, Shea Theodore, Haydn Fleury Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Anton Silayev. A mixed bag of what the players turned into. Likely not a star, likely more of a depth defender that makes it to 200+ games.
28. Bill Zonnon, C/LW, QMJHL
Good size, older, winger prospect with above average production in his D-1 and DY. If Zonnon saw an increase of about 15% to 20% in his D-1 and DY his profile would look much more promising. His consensus has him as a late 1st rounder. As a pick in the 20s, Zonnon is likely fine value there. Mackie Samoskevich is a good comp for what you might get with type of pick.
29. Jack Nesbitt, C, OHL
6’4’’ centers are hard to come by. Nesbitt, January born, with an equivalency in the mid 20s in his draft year and a consensus ranking at the start of the 2nd round, screams 3rd line checking center. Centers that look like this at the draft rarely ever turn into stars. Maybe once every 4-5 years. Mark Scheifele and JT Miller are the ultimate example of a similar sized center with the same model archetype becoming something special. In the past 35 years, over 250 forwards with a similar size and model profile, have been drafted and only 9 of them have turned into stars. But the size that Nesbitt brings probably at least gives you a center that you can use in a bottom 6 role.
30. Patryk Zubek, D, Slovakia/Slovakia U20
Nobody is talking about the Polish Patryk Zubek (not even mentioned in EP’s extensive draft guide!), who played his draft year in various Slovakian leagues in 2024-25. Zubek has ideal size for a dman (6’3’’, 200 pounds) and is a younger draftee as well (born April 18th). And to go along with that he also has pretty notable production in his D-1 and DY. The only thing is it’s coming from the Slovakia U20 league, which not a lot of players are drafted from and it’s probably under scouted. Zubek’s model profile looks almost identical to Filip Hronek, who came from the similar Czechia U20 league in his DY. The only exception… Zubek is 5.5 months younger! Zubek also got into some games in the pro Slovakia league as well. I’m sure there are many wonky habits from Zubek that make him concerning to draft but I’m pretty surprised he’s not even really ranked by most outlets, given his size, production and age.
31. Matus Lisy, D, Slovakia/Slovakia U20
Essentially the same story as Zubek. Significant production in the Slovakia U20 in both his D-1 and DY. Lisy is good size as well (6’1’’) and even younger than Zubek, born in mid June. Not very many players come from the Slovakia U20 in their DY and even fewer have notable production in it, leading to favorable model profile, so this is certainly a curious coincidence that there’s these two dmen emerging for the same 2025 draft. Even more curious, both dmen are basically completely unranked. Zubek and Lisy certainly won’t be taken in the 1st round. Probably won’t be taken with the 1st 90 picks of the draft. But as a late round pick, Zubek and Lisy present extremely good value for what you typically get late in the draft. A team should certainly take a swing on them late as the chances you get an NHLer from rounds 4 to 7 is about 15%.
32. Mateo Nobert, C, QMJHL
Nobert jumps out as he’s reasonable size (6’0’’), extremely young (born August 12th) with an equivalency in the mid 20s, tripling his production from his D-1 year. The folks at EP note Nobert is an elite playmaker with great vision but lacks speed in all facets (straightline and shiftiness/deception). Nobert probably doesn’t go until at least midway through the 2nd round. But based on his age, and the rapid development he’s already showing YoY, I could see him taking some big jumps over the next few years, improving his skating some and turning into a significant prospect for the organization that drafts him.
