THE PLAYER COMPARISON TOOL
About the Tool:
- The Player Comparison Tool includes every skater, drafted in the first seven rounds, from 1990 to Present as well as select undrafted stars and 1980s drafted Hall of Famers.
- It includes over 300 eligible draftees for the 2020 draft.
- In total, the tool includes over 5,000 players
- NHLes: How the player’s point production in their given league would translate to the NHL (over an 82 game pace). For example, an NHLe of 40 would on average result in 40 points over 82 games in the NHL the first season after the player transitions over.
- Also, NHLes are used as a way to standardize player’s offensive score over time. We’re looking for higher numbers at younger ages. Those are the biggest indicators of future star-potential and becoming an NHLer, in general.
- The tool provides the player’s NHLe for five years of development, from their D-1 season (i.e., pre-draft year) through their first eligible draft year (i.e., true draft year) through to their D3 season (i.e., third season after their first eligible draft year)
- The tool also provides the players’ probability of turning into an NHLer (200+ games) and probability of turning into an offensive star in the NHL (0.7+ career ppg for a forward and 0.45+ career ppg for a defenseman).
- The five closest comparables provide the five closest players based on star and NHLer probabilities. They are assessed at two stages: D0 – First eligible draft year (the year most players are drafted) and after the five year development track. Note, if the player was drafted in the past few years and hasn’t reached five years of development, the comparables are players that looked like that player at that point in their development. For instance, if the player is four years into their development path, the comparables would be of players that looked similar after four years of development.
- On rare occasion, the comparable may not match the player exactly. Often when this occurs, the player has a very unique development pattern and doesn’t match a lot players exactly.
THE DRAFTER TOOL
About the Tool:
- The Drafter Tool allows you to see all to draftees from a particular draft all in one spot by each draft year going back to 1990.
- The tool shows you what the player looked like at the moment they were drafted as well as what they looked like after the full five year development track.
- You can filter by year, position and draft number.
- If you’re wondering who were the best forwards or defensemen or players in general available when my team was up at a position in a given draft, this tool shows you!
- You can see all the potential draftees for the upcoming draft here as well.
THE TEAM PROSPECT STRENGTH TOOL
About the Tool:
- The team prospect strength tool includes all F and D drafted between 2013 and beyond. It also includes F and D undrafted players that have been signed who’s first eligible draft year would have occurred between 2013 and byeond. It includes all G drafted between 2012 to beyond. It also includes undrafted G that have been signed who’s first eligible draft year would have occurred between 2012 and beyond.
- Expected Stars: The addition of Star probabilities of any player with a 10% or greater chance of becoming a star.
- Expected NHLers: The addition of NHLer probabilities of any player with a 30% or greater chance of becoming an NHLer.
- The team prospect strength rankings consider all F and D drafted between 2015 and 2020 and all G drafted between 2013 and 2020 who have played 99 games or less in the NHL.
- The team prospect strength rankings consider five attributes: the average Star probability of the top 5 prospects, the average NHLer probability of the top 5 prospects, the number of players with a Star probability of 10% or more, the number of players with an NHLer probability of 30% and the average NHLer probabilities of the top 2 goalies in the system (as ranked by the Hockey Prospecting probabilities)
- Each team was ranked on the five attributes and then the average ranking of the four attributes determined the team’s strength ranking.
- Team strengths are static and do not update as you change the filtering parameters. They are manually updated as changes to team systems occur.
- Top 5 prospects (F and D) in each system are determined by Star and NHLer probabilities, not by reputation or major consensus. For instance, Alexander Romanov is widely considered one of Montreal’s top 5 prospects. However, in the Hockey Prospecting model, he ranks much lower down their system and would not be considered one of their top 5 prospects.
THE GOALIE COMPARISON TOOL
About The Tool:
- The Goalie Comparison Tool includes every goalie, drafted in the first seven rounds, from 1990 to Present as well as select undrafted goalies and 1980s drafted Hall of Famers.
- In total, the tool includes nearly 700 goalies
- Goalie Equivalency: Save percentage standardized by average save percentage by era multiplied by the league translation. Used as a gauge of how significant the goalie’s current season is towards making the NHL. These numbers won’t mean much to the common eye but they fuel the predictive model.
- The tool provides the goalies’ Goalie Equivalencies for seven years of development, from their D-1 season (i.e., pre-draft year) through their first eligible draft year (i.e., true draft year – D0) through to their D5 season (i.e., fifth season after their first eligible draft year)
- The tool also provides the goalies’ probability of turning into an NHLer (100+ games) from the D0 to D5 years
- Star Starter: 200+ games and won 50% or more of games; Average Starter: 200+ games; Back Up: 100 to 199 games; 50 Gamer: 50 to 99 games; Bust: Less than 50 games