The Hockey Prospecting model is a new and unique concept. It’s a whole different way of looking at players and evaluating who they are and their potential. It’s also a very new concept for NHL hockey operation departments. NHL teams that I’ve interacted/consulted with have many, many questions but there’s two things that teams always ask about:

1. How do our best prospects look in this thing?
2. Which players would you have drafted at x spot?

The second question comes up in different ways. “Who would you have taken with our 2nd round pick last year”, “if you picked 10th in every round of a certain draft, who would you have taken”. The questions are all a bit different but they’re all phishing for the same things: who would you have picked up on at the draft that we missed and how can this thing help us.

After receiving the question enough times, I undertook an exercise to answer it (and pitched it to a team). I not only looked at who a team could have had at one draft position in one draft, but looked at who a team could have drafted over the course of a decade with a moving draft position. In the exercise, I assumed that the team was getting better and better over time and was drafting at a lower and lower position each year.

Here’s the team the model drafted…

Methodology and Assumptions:

• The exercise follows the team for ten years (2009 to 2018)
• The draft positioning and team are hypothetical in this exercise however the team is assumed to be one of the 31 teams in the NHL.
• The team begins as a near-lottery team, drafting 5th overall, and gets better each year, becoming a division leader then a conference finalist to eventually becoming a Stanley Cup winner. What this this equates to is their draft position getting worse and worse.
• The team drafts at the same position every round. They never trade up or down.
• The team never acquires more draft picks or trades draft picks out.
• The team never drafts a goalie, only forwards and defensemen.
• The team doesn’t prioritize position based on need. They take the best player available.
• The best player available is based on how the player projects in the Hockey Prospecting model at the time of the draft while also considering age, runway left to improve and development pattern.
• While the exercise doesn’t prioritize one position over another, a D may be prioritized if multiple F have been taken in a row in a given draft and vice-versa. This only applied if player value between the F and D were relatively equal.
• This assumes, throughout the entire process, that Vegas doesn’t exist and there’s only 30 teams in the leagues. This is done simply because it keeps it cleaner.

The Results

2009 – Drafting 5th Every Round

Round	Draft Number	Player		Position	Result
1	5	Oliver Ekman-Larsson		D	Star Producer
2	35	Tyson Barrie		D	Star Producer
3	65	Reilly Smith		W	Avg. Producer
4	95	Linden Vey		W	100 Gamer
5	125	Alexander Avstin		W	Bust
6	155	Brandon Kozun		W	Bust
7	185	Torey Krug		D	Star Producer

2010 – Drafting 10th Every Round

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	10	Vladimir Tarasenko	W	Star Producer
2	40	Tyler Toffoli	W	Avg. Producer
3	70	Jordan Weal	W	Repl. Producer
4	100	Artemi Panarin	W	Star Producer
5	130	Tim Heed	D	100 Gamer
6	160	Tanner Lane	D	Bust
7	190	Nikita Gusev	W	Possible Star

2011 – Drafting 15th Every Round

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	15	Nikita Kucherov	W	Star Producer
2	45	Adam Clendining	D	100 Gamer
3	75	Johnny Gaudreau	W	Star Producer
4	105	Brendon Kichton	D	Bust
5	135	Alexey Marchenko	D	100 Gamer
6	165	Josh Archibald	W	Repl. Producer
7	195	Henrik Tommernes	D	Bust

2012 – Drafting 20th Every Round

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	20	Scott Laughton	W	Avg. Producer
2	50	Nikolay Prokhorkin	W	Probable NHLer
3	80	Charles Hudon	W	100 Gamer
4	110	Joe Laleggia	D	Bust
5	140	Coda Gordon	W	Bust
6	170	Jake Bischoff	D	Bust
7	200	Nick Ebert	D	Bust

2013 – Drafting 25th Every Round (Division Winner Previous Year)

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	25	Nic Petan	C	100 Gamer
2	55	Taylor Cammarata	W	Bust
3	85	Jordan Subban	D	Bust
4	115	Vincent Dunn	F	Bust
5	145	Anthony Louis	C	Bust
6	175	Andreas Johnsson	C	Repl. Producer
7	205	Emil Galimov	W	Bust

2014 – Drafting 25th Every Round (Division Winner Previous Year)

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	25	David Pastrnak	W	Star Producer
2	55	Brayden Point	C	Star Producer
3	85	Daniel Audette	C	Probable Bust
4	115	Dysin Mayo	D	Probable Bust
5	145	Pavel Kraskovsky	W	Probable Bust
6	175	Sammy Blais	W	Repl. Producer
7	205	Joe Hicketts	W	Probable Bust

2015 – Drafting 28th Every Round (Conference Finalist and Division Winner Previous Year)

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	28	Nick Merkley	W	Probable Bust
2	58	Oliver Kylington	C	Probable NHLer
3	88	Kirill Kaprizov	C	Probable Star
4	118	Ethan Bear	D	NHLer
5	148	Andrew Mangiapane	W	NHLer
6	178	Simon Bourque	W	Probable Bust
7	208	John Dahlstrom	W	Probable Bust

2016 – Drafting 30th Every Round (Stanley Cup Winner Previous Year)

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	30	Alex DeBrincat	W	Star Producer
2	60	Vitali Abramov	W	Probable NHLer
3	90	Antoli Golyshev	W	Probable Bust
4	120	Cole Candella	D	Probable Bust
5	150	Matthew Phillips	W	Possible NHLer
6	180	Collin Adams	W	Probable Bust
7	210	Joachim Blichfeld	W	Probable Bust

2017 – Drafting 28th Every Round (Conference Finalist and Division Winner Previous Year)

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	28	Reilly Walsh	D	Probable NHLer
2	58	Andrei Atybarmakyan	W	Probable Bust
3	88	Lucas Elvenes	W	Possible NHLer
4	118	Leon Gawanke	D	Possible NHLer
5	148	Nick Campoli	D	Probable Bust
6	178	Ivan Chekhovich	W	Possible NHLer
7	208	Joseph Garreffa	W	Possible NHLer

2018 – Drafting 25th Every Round (Division Winner Previous Year)

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	25	Rasmus Sandin	D	Possible Star
2	55	Filip Hallander	W	Possible NHLer
3	85	Alexander Khovanov	W	Possible NHLer
4	115	Jack Perbix	W	Probable Bust
5	145	Danila Zhuravlyov	D	Probable Bust
6	175	Nikolai Kovalenko	W	Possible Bust
7	205	Marcus Westfalt	W	Possible Bust

BONUS: 2019 – Drafing 30th Every Round (Stanley Cup Winner Previous Year)

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	30	Arthur Kaliyev	W	Possible Star
2	60	Pavel Dorofeyev	W	Unknown
3	90	Dominick Fensore	D	Unknown
4	120	Mike Koster	D	Unknown
5	150	Egor Serdyuk	W	Unknown
6	180	Mikhail Shalagin	W	Unknown
7	210	Cole MacKay	W	Probable Bust

BONUS: 2020 – Drafting 25th Every Round (Division Winner Previous Year)

Round	Draft Number	Player	Position	Result
1	25	Jacob Perreault	W	Unknown
2	55	Zion Nybeck	W	Unknown
3	85	Martin Chromiak	W	Unknown
4	115	Anton Johannesson	D	Unknown
5	145	Pavel Novak	W	Unknown
6	175	Alexander Pashin	W	Unknown
7	205	Ronan Seeley	D	Unknown

The Results (2009 to 2018)

70 picks made in total

Stars: 10 – OEL, Barrie, Krug, Tarasenko, Panarin, Kucherov, Gaudreau, Pastrnak, Point, DeBrincat

Probable/Possible Stars: 3 – Gusev, Kaprizov, Sandin

Average Producers: 3 – Smith, Toffoli, Laughton

Replacement Producers: 4 – Weal, Archibald, Johnsson, Blais

100 Gamers: 6 – Vey, Heed, Clendining, Marchenko, Hudon, Petan

NHLers/Probable NHLers/Possible NHLers: 12 – Prokhorkin, Kylington, Bear, Mangiapane, Abramov, Phillips, Walsh, Gawanke, Chekhovich, Hallander, Khovanov, Garreffa

Busts: 14 – Avstin, Kozun, Lane, Kichton, Tommernes, Laleggia, Gordon, Bischoff, Ebert, Cammarrata, Subban, Dunn, Louis, Galimov

Probable/Possible Busts: 17 – Audette, Mayo, Kraskovsky, Hicketts, N. Merkley, Bourque, Dahlstrom, Golyshev, Candella, Adams, Blichfeld, Atybarmakyan, Campoli, Perbix, Zhuravlyov, Kovalenko, Westfalt

In total, 17 NHLers and 15 probable/possible NHLers were drafted. Additionally, 6 players reached the 100 game mark and may have turned into full-time NHLers in a different system. All told, we can expect a success rate (i.e., 200+ games in the NHL) of ~45% (league average success rate is 26%).

The exercise identified 10 stars and 3 possible/probable stars currently coming up through the system. That’s a 14% confirmed star rate with another 5% of the players trending towards being stars. Stars only make up 3.5% of all skaters drafted. Some teams go decades without finding one star (e.g., the current Detroit Red Wings). It is pretty astonishing a team would end up with this many stars over such a short period.

Flaws and limitations of the method

If you look at the players taken that made the NHL, what do you notice? The team is absolutely loaded with wingers, with more coming. But there wasn’t as much success realized from centers and defensemen. Part of the reason is centers and offensive defensemen are highly sought after and the really good ones often go early. For seven of the 10 years, the team is drafting outside the top 15. The majority of the really high impact centers and defensemen are gone when the team gets to choose. But look at what’s still left. Year after year, elite wingers that slip through the cracks!

Forwards

Tarasenko Point Pastrnak

Gaudreau Johnsson Kucherov

Panarin Archibald DeBrincat

Smith Gusev Toffoli

Laughton Weal Prokhorkin

Blais Mangiapane Kaprizov

Defencemen

OEL Barrie

Krug Bear

Kylington Sandin

This team would have needed to acquire center and defensemen depth over the decade but, with the strength of their ever growing prospect pool, they would have been able to acquire those pieces, quite easily. Perhaps you could have traded DeBrincat and a prospect or pick for Ryan O’Reilly in 2018, when he was dealt to St. Louis. Barrie and Blais for Kadri in 2019, when he was dealt to Colorado. Gaudreau and a prospect or pick for Hamilton in 2015, when he was dealt to Calgary. You get the idea. The roster has holes but I don’t think there’s any question that the results here beat out the draft results of any team from the 2009 to 2018 period. And after a decade, the team would still be competitive, would still have a loaded prospect pool and would have little to no reliance on the free agent market.