Introducing the final Hockey Prospecting rankings of the top 32 for the 2026 draft! The rankings factor in the probabilities from the model, but also age, runway left to improve (i.e., how much time do they have to make the big jumps prior to certain age milestones indicative of impactful NHLers), league-specific patterns/anomalies and reputation/rank with reliable resources.
These are not scouting reports or a ranking of where we think players will actually be drafted. Rather, our rankings provide a glimpse into who we see making the NHL and becoming stars in the NHL, based on 30+ years of history and distinct pattern detection. As well, it’s important to note, that Hockey Prospecting is a model geared towards finding offensive dynamos, elite producers. Therefore the rankings favor players that show significant offensive upside, and often stays clear of low producing, primarily defensive prospects.
If you want to dive into the prospect model and why the players are ranked like they are, you can sign up here:
1. Gavin McKenna, LW, NCAA
There is some debate about who the best option is at #1 but for me it’s easily McKenna. Elite, generational production in his D-1 in the WHL. He had the highest D-1 equivalency since Mario Lemieux… absolutely remarkable. He switched to the NCAA (under the new CHL NCAA transfer agreement) for his draft year and started off slow. But by the midway point of the season he was producing at an elite rate, and finished like the top producing DY NCAA products that have come before him (Celebrini, Fantilli, Eichel and Kariya).
McKenna did see a drop off in his equivalency from his D-1 to his DY, and as you probably know I don’t like drop offs from your D-1 to DY because the historical data is not kind to it. But McKenna dropped off from one of the absolute highest D-1 equivalencies ever recorded to one in the top 0.01% for DY equivalencies. He switched leagues in his DY (which very few have done before him) to a league that is ~50% harder in competition than the WHL. So I am not concerned about this drop off. Had he stayed in the WHL, he probably would have eclipsed his D-1 equivalency (57), and put up close to 3 points a game.
All that to say… McKenna has the elite, elite model profile that I love. The ‘certain superstar’ profile where every forward drafted before him that looked somewhat similar (D-1 NHLe of 40+, DY NHLe of 50+) has turned into a superstar (a point per game or beyond). Bedard, Celebrini, Hughes, Matthews, McDavid, Eichel, Kane, Crosby… they all looked like this.
He profiles almost exactly like Patrick Kane and has a similar style as well (crazy mitts, deceptively good shot for a smaller winger, able to slow the game down to his speed and play the game on his terms). It would be great if he was a bit bigger or played the pivotal center role (like most of the superstars that profile like this) but I’m nearly certain he’s going to end up as a star in the NHL, likely a superstar. You can’t pass that up at 1st overall and Toronto shouldn’t either.
2. Ivar Stenberg, RW/LW, SHL
As much as I love McKenna, a team ending up with Stenberg with the 2nd to 4th pick should be running to the podium, here’s why…
Stenberg, in the J20 in Sweden, registered an equivalency of 35 in his D-1 year. This the highest D-1 equivalency of the J20/SuperElit junior league in Sweden, rivaling only Leo Carlsson’s D-1 in 2023 (he’s working out pretty good so far for Anaheim). Stenberg then followed that up with an equivalency of 50 in the SHL in his draft year. The SHL, of course, one of the top 2-3 leagues in the world. That is the highest equivalency a player has ever had in the SHL in their first eligible draft year. And his 50 equivalency in the SHL in his DY is about 15%-20% higher than the previous records (Daniel Sedin, Kevin Fiala and Elias Lindholm… two stars and a fringe star right on the line). Setting records in two different leagues, over two different pivotal development years… we love to see it.
Now lets get into his profile specifically and who he compares to…
The D-1 equivalency in the 30s and DY equivalency of 50+ archetype is an elite one. Behind the certain superstar archetype (like McKenna falls into), this is the 2nd best group to be in. Who comes from this group? They don’t pop up too often. Recently, you have the likes of Fantilli and Rossi. In the past, you had Briere, Daigle, Petrovicky, Lindros, Rolston, Hawerchuk, LaFontaine and Turgeon.
All of them made the NHL and most had star or even superstar careers. An interesting thing to note, however, is most of the guys that fit this archetype are/were centers. Stenberg is not. But… he’s heralded as a great two-way player that doesn’t cheat for his offense. And… he has one of the most elite profiles in the model and is breaking records everywhere he plays leading up to the draft.
Sign me up!
3. Carson Carels, D, WHL
The 2026 draft has some nice talent with high star potential but it doesn’t have a lot of Cs and is ripe with offensive star-caliber dmen. Carson Carels is our first D up and will be followed by a lot more great star dmen options.
Carels, good defender frame at 6’2” and 194, is heralded for his skating and offensive ability. He’s also one of the youngest defenders in the draft (certainly at the top end), born June 23, 2008. He had an equivalency of 31 in his draft year. The model loves dmen that hit an equivalency of 30+ in their draft year. Historically, that’s a big cut off point for dmen that eventually go on to be star producers in the NHL. But he also registered an equivalency in the mid teens in his D-1 year, as a 16 year old. Factor in that relative young age as well… who profiled like that? Paul Coffey, Zach Werenski, Rasmus Dahlin, Denton Mateychuk, Zach Bogosian and more recently Lukas Dragicevic.
Not a big list but essentially every dman included in that list turned into a star/superstar producer or are on their way to becoming one… with a few exceptions in Bogosian (who’s about to play 1,000 games) and Dragicevic who hasn’t played a game yet.
He’s a left shot. Right shot dmen are more coveted. But there’s a lot to like, and the model likes too, about Carels – good size, great mobility, very good to elite production in his DY and D-1 and doing so as one of the youngest dmen in the draft. As a Flames guy, I want the Flames to get an elite forward in this draft. But a team having Zayne Parekh (R) and Carson Carels (L) manning a top unit and top PP unit… I’m starting to get onboard with the idea.
4. Chase Reid, D, OHL
Chase Reid has an elite profile as well in the model. He’s mobile and can produce like a machine from the backend. There’s a few issues that maybe keep him from being ranked higher, or ranked as the top D in the ranking. For one, his production is off the charts elite in his D-1 and DY. He had 25 in his D-1 and 26 in his DY. Top 0.1% equivalencies in both years, of all ~3,000 in the model. My one reservation is why was there no level up in his draft year after having one of the most productive, highest equivalency, D-1s ever recorded.
The elite top pick skaters usually get at least 20% more productive from their D-1 to their DY, especially if they stay in the same league. They’re older, better and more confident and they get more minutes, better quality linemates, more PP time and they normally produce more from their D-1 to DY. That’s just how it goes. Reid didn’t. But… he stayed at a very, very elite level. So again it’s minor but I’m curious why he didn’t spring forward a bit more. Given his talent, and already having the ability to greatly outscore his peers by his D-1, I would have expected he hits a 30+ equivalency in his DY. It’s uncommon to be at such a high level in your D-1 but it’s also uncommon to level up again in your DY. And maybe it’s as simple as he was trying to refine his defensive game in his DY, and while making substantial improvements there, he sacrificed a smidgen of offence.
Drew Doughty is one example I can think of where this same phenomenon happened. Similar rel. age to Reid (both born in December), Doughy had an equivalency of 27 in his D-1 and fell back to 21 in his DY. Obviously, Doughty was still drafted 2nd overall and turned into a very good player and a star producing dman. Probably the same fate for Reid.
My only other minor, minor issue that probably keeps him behind Carels is the age. Reid is born December 30, 2007, which makes him almost exactly 6 months younger than Carels.
All that being said, when you look at players that profile anywhere close to Reid there’s not a lot and the names are all pretty notable: the aforementioned Doughty is in the ball park (although a bit different), and then you have Orr (haha), Housley, Nemec, Ellis and Cole Hutson. Not a bad list.
5. Tynan Lawrence, C, USHL/NCAA
Tynan Lawrence is a super interesting and controversial prospect in the model. He shared equal time between the USHL and NCAA, as a 17 year old, in his draft year. I don’t think we’ve ever seen that before. Players don’t move from the USHL to the NCAA mid-season in their DY, and especially ones that are so young and should be finishing up their Grade 12 year in high school, not starting college in January.
Lawrence is one of the youngest forwards in the draft, born August 3, 2008 (shares a birthday with my oldest son, Theo… so I’ll never forget TL’s birthday!). He’s not big but he’s not small (6’0”, 185… similar size to Crosby). He’s a great skater with a relentless motor. He’s always been a point producer who has routinely ‘played up’ a level or two, going back to his teenage years, playing on clubs where he would be one of or the youngest player on the team. This continued into his draft year, where he was playing in college as a 17 year old with a birthday very late in the year. Lawrence has always been thought of as a highly touted prospect. He has continually been seen as a top 10 pick in draft consensus rankings. And today, as we lead up to the draft in June, Lawrence currently finds himself as the 7th ranked prospect on EliteProspects consensus top 100. Therefore the overall scouting reputation of Lawrence is very good.
In terms of his model outlook, his profile looks really great, with a important footnote. Lawrence had an equivalency of 22 in his D-1 and 30 in his DY. Mix in the fact that he’s a natural center and his late summer birthday and reasonable size… the model loves him. Star probabilty of 55% and NHLer probability of 82%. Specifically, the June to September 15 born ones that profile like this nearly always make the NHL, often as stars.
Now lets get into that footnote, or curiosity, that might give you pause. As mentioned earlier, he shared time between the USHL and NCAA, very unique path and not something you ever really see. This occurrence is made even more odd by the fact that Lawrence is Canadian, born and raised in Fredericton, NB. The usual path for elite Canadian talents is AAA program close to home until you’re about 16 and then you’re drafted into which ever CHL league you’re closest to and then AHL or NHL. It’s becoming more common, Makar, Fantilli, Celebrini and McKenna for instance, where Canadians are going more of the American college route but its still a new thing.
The result from the mid season change is he only played 31 games in his draft year (which is a decent sample), but that’s split pretty evenly across the two leagues (13 in the USHL and 18 in the NCAA). So we’re looking at a pretty small sample in each league.
With regards to the model, if a player plays in multiple leagues in a year, common in Europe not common in North America, I universally take the equivalency of where they showed best (highest equivalency). Lawrence, as a 17 year old freshman coming in halfway through the year, didn’t produce a whole lot in the NCAA (while he was heating up at the end of the year). His production in the USHL this year, where he served as the captain during his time this season, was at a great (short of elite) level. It was likely to increase as the season went on and he took over… but he only got to 13 games and switched. So the sample size, switching of leagues and not blowing the doors off immediately in college give me a bit of reservation.
But that being said, the speed and motor, the fact he’s always had this really high reputation, what he was able to do in his D-1, his really young rel. age and what he did accomplish in his tiny game sample in the USHL this year… there’s a lot to like there, and a lot the model loves. Especially given their aren’t many, if any, truly elite C options in this year’s draft… Lawrence model profile suggests he could be one of of the best options. Some Cs that he profiles similar to include: Nugent-Hopkins, MacKinnon, Cooley, Barzal, Reschny and Connolly.
He won’t be in the NHL right away, but after a few years of dominance in the NCAA, this could be a stud 1C bluechip prospect.
6. Caleb Malhotra, C, OHL
Malhotra is regarded as the best true center option in the draft and sounds like he’ll go in the top 3, most likely at 3rd to Vancouver. Malhotra, son of two-way NHLer center Manny Malhotra, is a fast dominant center, who has gotten better and better (and produced more) as the season has gone on. His reputation and stock has grown substantially throughout the season. At the start of the season, he was more regarded as a great option in the back half of the top 10 or early teens, by midseason he was widely seen as a top 5 prospect and now the chatter is he has a very real possibility of going top 3.
Model-wise, Malhotra profiles pretty well. Not elite yet (star probability of 31% and NHLer probability of 68%), but with his age, rapid improvement, and runway to explode… he could grow to a really elite profile in the model. He was born June 2, 2008 and had an equivalency of 31 in his draft year. He played in the BCHL in his D-1 and didn’t produce much before moving over to the OHL. In fact, his equivalency in his DY was nearly four times what he saw in his D-1. Add to it, the production was continually rising throughout the year. His second half was more productive than his first half of the year. Into the playoffs, he has been dominating all over the ice, and, while it doesn’t officially count in the model, he has an equivalency over 40 in the playoffs so far. Centers he looks like in the model include: Nick Suzuki, Sam Bennett, Brad Richards, Joe Sakic, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Mike Comrie and Michael Hage.
As one of very few notable C options available in this draft, Malhotra is certainly one of the better options and he will be highly coveted. I would guess he’s not NHL-ready yet but by the 2027-28 season he could be ready to make an impact.
7. Keaton Verhoeff, D, NCAA
Verhoeff, a 6’4”, 210 pound mobile defenseman, who can defend but also produce at a pretty good rate. This is the dream of many an NHL GM and my gut tells me he’s not going to last to 7th overall.
Verhoeff, one of the younger D options available (born June 19, 2008) and already built like a 30 year old man, has seen some nice production over his pivotal D-1 and DY development years. In his D-1 he had an equivalency of 17… pretty great, especially for a 16 year old dman. He followed that up with an equivalency of 20 when he moved to the NCAA. That’s still a reasonable jump, especially given the league change and the age. But, for him to bump out some of the players ahead of him here, I would have loved to see a bit more production, leaving less doubt.
It sounds like, while having bright spots in his first year of college, he struggled at times. By struggle, I mean he struggled to be dominant and be one of the best players on the ice (like he should be given his reputation). He still had a very good freshman year (especially for a kid that should be in Grade 12, not college). The profile in the model, regardless, is still very appealing: Redden, Brannstrom, Barrie, Girard, Drysdale, Boyle and some less successful options share this same archetype (based on D-1 and DY production as well as rel. age). Important to note… none of the players compared to Verhoeff share his large physical frame. They were all smaller defenders.
Truthfully, I’m not sure I love this sudden move to the NCAA for these highly sought after prospects. Uprooting your life and moving on to a much more difficult league, with university studies to go along with it, during your draft year, as a potential top 5, top 10 pick doesn’t make much sense to me. As a prospect this highly regarded, you’re getting drafted high in the NHL and will likely have a substantial career in the NHL. You probably won’t ever finish college (or you’ll finish over the course of several summers to make mom happy… while collecting millions of dollars throughout the year).
Verhoeff’s stock was probably not helped by his move to the NCAA, and was only impacted in a negative way. Had he had stayed in the WHL, he would have likely had a massive, dominant season and registered a massive jump in production, coming out of it looking like Chris Pronger 2.0. Instead… he’s probably fallen back a few spots in the draft and there’s a bit more question marks about his future.
His year in college was fine, and he looks like a really good bet in the model as well. I have a feeling, though, if he’d stayed in the WHL, his model profile would be elite, and he would thought of as a unanimous top 3 pick. Either way, really great option at 7th overall if all the options above are gone and he falls that far.
8. Daxon Rudolph, D, WHL
Rudolph has a great profile in the model. Grew from an equivalency of 15 in his D-1 (5%) to 28 in his DY (top 2%). He has good size and is the coveted right shot as well. He profiles similar to Juuso Valimaki, Evan Bouchard, Brandt Clarke, Zeev Buium, Cam York, Carter Yakemchuk, Lane Hutson, Ty Smith and Artyom Levshunov.
Really great option for an elite offensive dman down the road. His production exceeded Verhoeff and he saw more growth from his D-1 to his DY but I kept him behind Verhoeff because he’s a few months older, is a bit smaller and Verhoeff has historically had a higher reputation.
Getting this type of model profile at 8th overall though… a team should be so lucky.
9. Ryan Lin. D, WHL
Ryan Lin probably isn’t talked about enough. He has a really elite profile in the model, growing from an equivalency of 21 in his D-1 to 26 in his DY, while having an April birthday. His star probability is 64% and his NHLer probability is 84%. So why isn’t he higher? He’s smaller than all of the other elite D options above him on the HP top 32. He’s 5’11” and 175 pounds while all the other options are 6’2” or bigger and about 200 pounds. He also isn’t talked about and isn’t as highly regarded as those other d options above him. But the Hutson brothers, Zellweger, Mateychuk, Clarke, Faber (all smaller dmen)… were never regarded as one of the best D in their class… until they were.
I have been burned with smaller dmen that profiled elite that didn’t quite reach the high heights in the NHL like expected (Ryan Merkley, Ty Smith, Mikhail Gulyayev (TBD)), but I’m willing to risk being burned again and standing by Ryan Lin as a top 10, top 15 pick. He probably goes later than this behind options with much less potential to be something special. If he hits, there’s a good chance he hits really big.
10. Viggo Bjorck, C/RW, SHL
If you’ve been following along through the first nine in the HP Top 32, you’ve probably been wondering where the hell is Viggo Bjorck??? Well, here he is, at the 10 spot. Bjorck is very highly regarded. He’s an insane competitor that hates to lose a battle and could be a play driving, possession king. He is very highly thought of and regarded as one of the best forward prospects from this draft.
He switched from the J20 to the SHL this year… which, granted, is a gigantic jump in leagues. The SHL is a much better league, it’s essentially 3 times better than the J20 in terms of quality of competition. And the SHL is a very defensive league and it has been historically very difficult for U20 prospect to produce there. That’s not nothing..
Model-wise, Bjorck had a gigantic equivalency of 32 in the J20 in his D-1. In his draft year, where he moved to the much, much harder league, it fell to 23. This is a bit of a concern. It’s really tough to quantify the impacts of the league switch. Massive jump between the leagues. And there’s always the hypothetical… if he had played in the J20 or even the Allsvenskan his equivalency would probably be in the 40s. And I think that’s likely… but he was in the SHL all year and we never got to see if that was the case.
There’s a few examples we can look back on who have done something similar (European playing in a junior league in their D-1 with significant production and switched to a pro league in their DY and saw a drop off or plateau, drafted in top 2 rounds)… Saku Koivu (star), Jens Karlsson (didn’t work out), Robert Nilsson (didn’t work out), Mikael Backlund (high impact C), Sebastian Aho (superstar), Roope Hintz (star), Jonathan Dahlen (didn’t work out), Carl Grundstrom (didn’t work out), Filip Forsberg (borderline superstar), Lucas Raymond (borderline superstar), Noel Gunler (didn’t work out), Eduard Sale (TBD … not looking good) and Michael Brandsegg-Nygard (TBD). A mixed bag, over half ended up turning out very, very well and the other ~40% barely played in the NHL.
The SHL, mind you, is the league that has these odd balls where a young prospect isn’t able to generate much production there and comes to the NHL and produces big: Sundin (going way back), Kopitar, and Raymond are some examples. Is this what you’re getting with Bjorck… then definitely pull the trigger. But its hard to know.
Also, he’s undersized, 5’10” and 175 pounds. As well, that March birthday. Not one of the oldest prospects available but verging into the older category. That all gives me some reservations about drafting him too high. Are you getting Nils Hoglander or are you getting someone with the tenacity of Nils Hoglander but with a producing ability much higher, like Brad Marchand for instance.
I like Bjorck, I like how he plays, and I understand it if a team drafts him much higher than this. There’s a little bit of unknown to me that you might pass on something really substantial and a great model bet (the names mentioned above him here) to get a good but not great player.
11. JP Hurlbert, RW, WHL
JP Hurlbert, perhaps my first pick that you look at and think “I haven’t seen anybody rank him this high, what’s he doing here”… and what he’s doing here is fitting the role of one of the most underrated prospects of the 2026 draft.
Hurlbert, born April 11, 2008, has a really nice profile in the model. In his D-1, in the USHL, he had an equivalency of 21. The American Hurlbert, jumped to the WHL in his draft year, which could have backfired if the production fell off substantially, but he saw a nice jump in his equivalency, climbing to 35. A similar model output in fact to Tynan Lawrence, who is regarded as a top 10 pick and finds himself above at #5 on the HP top 32. Lawrence gets a slightly higher bump due to his higher reputation, later birthday and being a C.
But Hurlbert looks every bit the part of a later 1st round steal. Some players that have looked similar include: Nugent-Hopkins, Bellows, Nick Merkley, O’Brien, Weal, Toffoli, Marleau, Theo Fleury and Nash. And one last one I really want to highlight… Matt Boldy.
Boldy, also a winger, went 12th overall in 2019, and he’s turned into one of the few superstars to emerge from the 2019 class (only Hughes and Boldy). In a redraft, Boldy would be a top 5 pick but he fell to 12. There were players taken ahead of him that profiled in the model much worse and teams are kicking themselves for not taking Boldy earlier.
Boldy and Hurlbert are nearly identical in rel. age (Hurlbert born on April 11 and Boldy on April 5). Boldy is a bit larger frame but they’re comparable. Their D-1 and DY equivalencies are both nearly identical. Hurlbert probably isn’t drafted until the late teens, although a team that, recently, seems to be leaning on the data like the Pens, Flames and Hurricanes, could jump in and get him earlier.
Hurlbert, who has jumped around from league to league on a year by year basis the last few years, has always produced wherever he goes. He’ll jump again next year, to the NCAA, and I wonder if you’ll see him ‘surprise again’ and be one of the leading producing, especially freshman, of the NCAA.
12. Nikita Klepov, LW, OHL
Klepov, a Russian who has played in North America the last few years (and was also born in the US). Most recently, he played in the OHL in his draft year and is another underrated good bet that I love. He has a late June birthday mixed with some of the highest production in the league, which as you’ve gathered, the model and I love. He had an equivalency of 36… nearing that magical DY 40 mark.
To put that in perspective, his rel. age is about the same as Lawrence and Malhotra, very likely two of the first three Fs off the board, and his equivalency is higher than both (only by a bit). Klepov isn’t a center but even with that type of production, Klepov is likely going to get drafted 10 to 20 spots behind those two.
Some wingers that profile like Klepov in the mode: Kolvalchuk, Tij Iginla, Huberdeau, Turris, Kaliyev, Wellwood, Evander Kane, Milano, Gusev, Firkus, Tracey, Brink, JVR, Vilardi and Ray Whitney.
Add to it, the fact that Klepov has already made the move to North Amercia from Russia at the age of 13, to further his hockey career. He wants to be in the NHL and has made the move early to try and better his chances. This isn’t the typical Russian prospect that you’re going to have to wait 4-5 years to play his time in the KHL before jumping over, he’s here and ready to go already. I think he’s going to be a sneaky great add for a team this June.
13. Tommy Chrenko, C, Slovakia
Tommy Chrenko is an undersized (5’11”, 170 pounds) center playing in the Slovakian pro league. Chrenko is one of the last few substantial model bets that remains in the Top 32. But the Slovakian Chrenko is not really regarded as a 1st round talent, most mock drafts and draft rankings have him as an early 2nd round pick.
What jumps out to me is an elite equivalency in his D-1 of 34 (in the Slovakia U20 league) and an almost elite equivalency, slight jump in his DY of 38, which comes in the Slovakia pro league. If he jumped up to something in the 40s in his DY… that would have been a whole other level, and the model would love him even more.
Historically, the Slovakia pro league is undervalued. It’s actually a pretty good quality league (with a low sample size to it). I would sandwich it somewhere between the Czechia league, Allsvenskan and Liiga in terms of its strength. And I think this is part of the reason Chrenko is seen as a 2nd rounder rather than a bonafide 1st round option. If you’re curious, here’s a list of some NHLers that played in the Slovakia league in their daft year – Hossa, Gaborik, Panik, Tatar (recent draft picks Mesar, Sykora and Nemec as well).
Chrenko is an older player born November 2, 2007 and in his D-1 and DY has had an equivalency in the 30s. There’s a few players that share a similar look but here’s a few that jump out: Cory Stillman, Kyle Connor, Sean Monahan, Sean Couturier, Frank Nazar, Thomas Vanek, Leo Carlsson and Roman Kantserov.
The two I really want to highlight are the latter two, Carlsson and Kantserov. Carlsson, drafted in 2023, moved to the SHL in his DY from the J20 and saw a similar subtle jump in his production, but didn’t quite get to that 40s bump (just like Chrenko). Carlsson was drafted 2nd overall and had some nice productive first two years in the NHL, but not groundbreaking. In his D+3, he exploded in the NHL and is now a star, on track to be a superstar shortly.
Kantserov, similar size and position to Chrenko, was also regarded as a 2nd round option and was indeed drafted right in the middle of the 2nd round, at 44th overall in 2023. Kantserov didn’t jump to his pro league (KHL) in his DY like Carlsson and Chrenko, but stayed in the MHL and registered a similar equivalency to his D-1, increasing slightly. Kantserov jumped to the KHL in his D+1, took a step back production-wise, and then exploded in his D+2 and D+3 seasons in the KHL, recording record-caliber points for his age in the league.
Kantserov is signed with the Blackhawks and set to make his debut next year. His model profile has grown as well as his overall reputation. So as of today, before he’s played a game in the NHL, Kantserov, in a re-draft, probably isn’t a 2nd round pick and is at least a late 1st or higher pick.
I could see something similar for Chrenko. Nobody is really talking about him in the light of being a 1st round pick, and he’s probably not picked in the 1st round either. But the pro league production and remaining at a nice, high level of production from his D-1 to his DY… that just screams that he’s going to overshoot his draft slot (Chrenko has a star probability of 31% and an NHLer probability of 88%… the typical 2nd rounder makes the NHL in a notable way about 30% of the time). There’s not many NHL misses from this archetype, especially when they’re already in a legit pro Euro league in their draft year.
14. Xavier Villeneuve, D, QMJHL
Villeneuve, another offensive dman, had a very high (top 2%) equivalency in his draft year and then plateaued at that same equivalency in his draft year, similar to Reid but Reid was a step above. Looking at players that profile just like him, however, you get a nice group: Groleau (didn’t work out), Pietrangelo (star), Pulock (NHLer), Chychrun (star) and Power (borderline star).
His consensus ranking has him at 18th. Villeneuve, compared to many of the D gems in this draft, is a smaller body, at 5’11” and 160 pounds and is also one of the oldest D prospects in the draft. But still lots of potential of getting a very good, possibly star player with Villeneuve.
15. Tommy Bleyl, D, QMJHL
Bleyl is a bit out of nowhere prospect. I had never heard of him before I was going through my 2026 data and saw his production jump off the page to me. He was in the middle of the data, well past the top consensus high producers. Bleyl, an American from New York State, came to the QMJHL this year and, as a dman, recorded 81 points in 63 games. That is an exceptional high production and equivalency for a dman who’s playing his first year in the CHL in his draft year. Prior to his DY, Bleyl was in high school and AAA programs in the US and they’re always tough to get a good read on. There’s so many high school and AAA leagues in the U.S., and players are never coming from the same programs. As well, most elite American hockey prospects are playing in the USHL, NADP or NCAA when they’re drafted.
So Bleyl feels like a player that people are starting to notice more and more, now that he’s playing in the QMJHL, and producing at such a high, immediate rate. If he was in the QMJHL last year and saw notable production already, he would likely be a bit more highly regarded (even still his consensus is #43, which ain’t too shabby).
When you look at dmen that profile like Bleyl (older, lower production in D-1 and an equivalency north of 25 in their DY) you get a bit of a mixed bag… Provorov, Hedman, Rielly, Reinbacher, Vande Sompel, Stajduhar and Thelen. The list isn’t big but it’s really a homerun or bust situation. And really the home runs are coming from guys taken top 10. Are you getting a player who sees very little of the NHL… or are you getting a top 4 dman that could be a star producer. Bleyl is not going in the the top 10, nearly guaranteed… does that tip him towards not making it?
Bleyl DY production is far superior than most of his peers (except all the d listed above him here) that I’d be willing to take the risk on him in the middle of the 1st round. One last thing that’s really interesting about these types of dmen is the D-1 year. Similar aged dmen that had an equivalency in the 25 to 30 range in their draft year (like Bleyl) but also had a notable D-1 equivalency (~12 or more) make the NHL at a higher rate and are more likely to turn into stars than the ones that don’t have the notable D-1.
The fact that Bleyl only came over to the Q this year and doesn’t have that previous history in the same league… makes me optimistic that Bleyl will land in the homerun zone of this archetype.
16. Liam Ruck, LW, WHL & 17. Markus Ruck, C, WHL
Liam and Markus Ruck, the twin sensations from the Medicine Hat Tigers, will be talked about essentially as one, mega, super prospect in this ranking rather than individually. This is due to the fact that if a team is drafting one, I think they want to also get the other one, to cash in on that apparent telekinetic vision twins vision they have. And I am also of the mind they should be drafted together to get the greatest impact. Drafted separately as their own entities, I would probably move both back in the draft rankings at least a few spots.
Liam Ruck, the finishing twin, is the more sought after prospect, with the higher reputation. He has always been ranked higher in consensus rankings (from last year continuing to today). He is the goal scorer of the two, often finishing the magic plays drummed up by the twins. He registered 45 goals in 68 games and had 104 points in total (which works out to an equivalency of 38).
Markus Ruck, the set-up twin, has typically had a consensus ranking 15-30 spots behind Liam. Markus, in his D-1, while playing with Liam then as well, didn’t pop like Liam and didn’t see nearly the production. In his DY, where Liam and Markus were essentially together every game, every shift, saw a massive rise in his production. Markus finished with 108 points, but only 21 goals and 87(!!!) assists. He is clearly the one setting the plate for Liam to finish. 21 goals as a draft eligible… perhaps this is why he’s not thought of as highly as Liam. All told, he finished with an equivalency of 39, just ahead of Liam.
87 assists in your draft year in the CHL. That is an incredible feat and one that is very uncommon. There’s only been a handful of CHL prospects over the years that have put up 85+ assists in their DY, the last to do it was Crosby. Markus is thought of as a 2nd round pick, 87 assists is not 2nd round value, that’s 1st round value. The list includes: Denis Chalifoux, Alexandre Daigle, Bob Wren, Marc Savard, Daniel Briere, Ramzi Abid, Mike Ribeiro, Scottie Upshall, Pierre-Marc Bouchard and Sidney Crosby. Of the 10 from 1990 to 2005 to do this, 7 made the NHL and 4 turned into stars/superstars (and they wern’t all top 5 picks either… Savard, Briere and Ribeiro were not, only Crosby was). Honestly, Markus should probably be grouped a bit closer to Liam anyways.
Now… the twin thing. It is very, very rare that twins both play hockey and are both possible NHL talents. Even rarer that they’re both elite producers with potential to be producers in the NHL. It’s only really happened three times – Ron and Rich Sutter (1982), Chris and Peter Ferraro (1992) and Daniel and Henrik Sedin (1999). In two of those occasions, the last two… the twins were drafted to the same team. And I am confident a team will make the same happen this year.
What the Sedins had was magic. It took a few years to really hit but when it hit… you could see it, it was something extraordinary. We’ve all seen the Ruck highlights. It’s there, there’s something between the two of them that probably can’t be recreated by replacing one of them.
Their equivalency and model profiles is good, not quite elite but good. Most years you see players with equivalencies just like that drafted in the middle of the 1st round or even a bit higher. Sometimes they work out really well, sometimes they barely make the NHL, sometimes they miss entirely. But there’s a decent amount of success from that archetype anyways.
As you get into the latter part of the 1st round, where only ~60% to 70% make 200 games in the NHL, and with what will already be off the board and what’s left, I think it’s worth the risk. It’s worth the risk to get the brothers together and see if there’s magic at the highest level. If not… oh well, another couple late 1st rounders who don’t work out too much. If it hits… you’ve changed the trajectory of your team and, as the GM, you’re a legend forever.
18. Alan Shaikhlislamov, LW, MHL
Unless you’ve seen my tweet, good chance you’ve never heard of this guy. I am going way off the wall here but the model profile is borderline elite and I think he deserves some attention!
Shaikhlislamov, a Russian prospect from the MHL, has seen great production in his D-1 and DY. In his D-1 he had an equivalency of 21 and his draft year he had an equivalency of 32. Now add to it that his birthday is September 4, 2008, 11 days from being ineligible for this draft and instead being eligible for the 2027 draft, as a first timer. Now this guy is jumping off the page to me.
What gives me great reservations about ranking him even higher is the fact he plays for this wonky MHL league in Russia (and teams seem to be actively staying clear of prospects playing in Russia… at least early in the draft). And the fact that basically nobody is talking about him. That makes me nervous that I’m missing something.
But the model profile looks like Lawrence and Hurlbert and he’s even younger. He’s got good size as well. There’s a lot of good things here. But he basically isn’t really ranked anywhere. Central scouting has him as the 25th ranked Euro prospect, which is quite low. But… EliteProspects, which is one of my most trusted sources, have him ranked. They have him ranked at 64, so essentially backend 2nd round (Lane Hutson territory).
There has only been one player from the MHL who shared a similar very young age and had an equivalency of 20+ in his D-1 and 30+ in his DY and it was Nikita Kucherov. Kucherov was taken as a 2nd rounder and was a bit of a surprise to have been taken that high. Shaikhlislamov is probably not Kucherov (who is)… but the model paints a rosy picture, and in the late 1st round I’m going to take that swing. If he hits the KHL next year for some substantial time, and immediately starts putting up points… look out.
19. Marcus Nordmark, LW, J20
Nordmark has a high reputation. He’ll likely go in the 1st round and consensus ranking has him right in the middle of the 1st round (14). He’s got good size at 6’1” and was born in May. What the model sees is good nearly great production in his D-1 and DY. He had an equivalency of 19 in his D-1 and 27 in his DY (both in the J20). In a perfect world, if he saw production 10%-20% higher in both years, his model profile would be a whole other level and he would probably be ranked in the top 10 as well. I think Nordmark is a sneaky good value add. He’s probably in the SHL or Allvenskan next year (he already saw 8 games in the SHL this year)… and I wonder what he’s able to do there. Is there some immediate production coming and massive model growth?
20. Mathis Preston, RW, WHL
Mathis Preston, born July 21, 2008, is a smaller winger from the WHL. In his D-1 year he had an equivalency in the low 20s and was thought to be a possible top 15 pick. His DY saw only modest improvement (equivalency of 24) and he fell a bit out of the top 15 conversation.
However, with his young age, that modest YoY growth isn’t a recipe for disaster. This happens relatively often with younger players where they don’t see a big growth in their DY but they maintain an above average level. And the success of these players is pretty substantial. Some notable ‘young’ Summer prospects that shared a similar profile include: Jordan Eberle, Corey Perry, Johnny Gaudreau, Pavel Buchnevich, JT Compher, Patrice Bergeron, Zachary L’Heureux, Conor Geekie, Kirill Marchenko, etc.
The thing that these players also had in common is big growth, big seasons soon after being drafted. If Preston can return to the WHL and put up a big season (equivalency in the late 30s or even 40s) and continue to grow from there, he can get back up to that top 15 level projection. As a late 1st rounder, early 2nd he’s going to be great value.
21. Pierce Mbuyi, LW, OHL
Mbuyi, a small winger (5’11”, 159 pounds) out of the OHL, has a similar profile to Preston. Younger prospect with a D-1 and DY equivalency in the 20s, with some slight growth. He’s slighter than Preston, a little bit older and isn’t as highly regarded (ranked 53rd in consensus rankings vs. Preston being ranked 23rd) so he slots in behind Preston.
22. Alberts Smits, D, Liiga/DEL
Smits is regarded as one of the best two-way defenders in the draft (the others above him can probably be more categorized as offensive dmen). He played mostly in the Liiga (Finnish pro league) while seeing a few games in the Finnish junior league and the DEL.
His profile in the model has some intrigue but also lags behind some of his D peers in the 2026 class. In the Liiga, he had an equivalency of 15. In a legit Euro pro men’s league, that’s pretty good, but not elite. When Dahlin and Hedman were coming out of the SHL in their DY, they had elite equivalencies. Brandt Clarke switched to the Slovakia pro league in his DY because of COVID uncertainties in the OHL that year, and he had an elite equivalency. Nemec had an elite equivalency in his draft year in the Slovakia league as well. Smits was only ok in comparison to those, certainly not something that screams top 10 pick anyways.
Smits is a big body, probably a formidable defender that can shutdown top opposition. But does he have the ability to be a star as well to which I’m not sure it’s there. Smits is one of the older D in the class as well so there’s not as much runway to pop. He has a very similar profile to Simon Edvinsson. He went 6th overall to Detroit and he’s growing into a fine player for the Red Wings but will he ever be that true #1 star D… not sure he’ll quite get there. Anton Silayev is another one that comes to mind. That’s still a work-in progress but the production progression post draft hasn’t been there for Silayev.
For me, I don’t like the idea of passing up on one of the few stars (likely 6 to 8) that will come from this draft (likely to come from the players ranked higher here) for a top 2-4 dman that doesn’t produce enough offence. So taking him inside the top 10 isn’t big for me but once you get past the midway point of the 1st, he’d be good value.
23. Ethan Belchetz, LW, OHL
Belchetz is a bit of an interesting one in terms of his model projection vs. his ranking. His consensus ranking has him inside the top 10, at 8th. Model-wise, you have a player born March 30 (so grey area in terms of age). He’s big, really big. 6’5”, 227… bigger than almost all of his peers in the OHL. And he has an equivalency that’s good but not great (27 in his DY). Historically speaking, these ones don’t turn into stars very often, even as top 15 picks. Looking at similar sized guys, from similar junior leagues, with a similar rel. age and equivalency… Mark Scheifele and JT Miller are the big hits with dozens of ok NHLers and busts outside of them.
Slafkovsky, coming from a similar track in Europe, has that same massive frame, same March birthdate and similar DY equivalency. I never liked him as a #1 overall pick. He was in fact the lowest value #1 pick ever taken (model-wise). It took him a few years to get going but Slafkovsky looks to be proving many doubters wrong (including me) and is turning into a dominating giant star presence. I trust that what teams are hoping for with Belchetz as well. Can he be Slafkovsky will be the running comparison.
I see Belchetz certainly being an NHLer (he’ll get all the opportunity in the world to show he fits regardless) but I don’t think there’s going to be a star there. So he’s not a top 10 pick for me, rather, he’s late teens/early 20s value.
24. Lavr Gashilov, C, MHL
Gashilov has a decent profile. An equivalency of 27 in his D-1 and 39 in his DY. Most often, these types of archetypes are drafted in the middle part of the 1st round. Gashilov, of course, comes from the underscouted MHL Russian league. His consensus has him at 79th overall (mid 3rd rounder).
When you look at any older forward coming out of Europe in their draft year (all pro and junior Euro leagues that are included in the model) who had that same profile in the model (D-1 equivalency in the 20s and DY equivalency in the 30s)… the hit rate is nearly 100%. Soderberg (NHLer), Backstrom (superstar), Granlund (fringe star), Lias Andersson (110 games), Boqvist (NHLer), Kakko (NHLer), Stutzle (superstar), Holtz (borderline NHLer), Amirov (RIP), Eklund (NHLer), Artamonov and Chernyshov.
Chernyshov, especially, looks almost identical to Gashilov. Same league in their D-1 and DY and similar equivalencies. Gashilov is a few months older (they were both older (rel.) prospects when they were drafted though). Chernyshov has worked out amazingly well so far. If Gashilov can be anything close to that… he’s going to way outshoot his draft slot.
25. Ilia Morozov, LW, NCAA
There’s a whole bunch of players that ‘profile’ very similar in the model now. Lots of older and younger players with equivalencies in the 20s in their DY. Some of these will hit, a few will hit big, and most will miss the NHL all together. I start to rely on reputation and consensus rankings more so once I get to this point.
Morozov is one from this big grouping that jumps out in a few ways. Morozov is 6’3” and 205 pounds and looks 10 years older than he is. Meanwhile, he’s not even 18 yet, and doesn’t turn until August 3rd. He moved over to America from Russia… and went straight into the NCAA.
That is highly unusual and something I’ve never seen. And he produced at a modestly high level in the NCAA to boot! His consensus ranking has him right around #20 as well. It feels like this guy is going to see some big growth in the model over the next few years. Maybe he goes to the NCAA for a few more years or maybe he goes right to the AHL next year. But in 2-3 years… with a growing YoY equivalency… he could be a seriously good caliber prospect for an NHL organization.
26. Wyatt Cullen, LW, NTDP
Cullen’s stock has been rising throughout the year, especially the last few months. Model-wise, Cullen has above average production and is probably the absolute youngest player in the draft (born September 8th… 7 days before the cut off). We love that.
To go along with it, he has an equivalency of 25 in the US National Development program, more than doubling his D-1 equivalency of 12. Cullen will be off to college in the fall where I’d expect to see substantial growth in his equivalency over the next few years. He’s not an option for right now… but scouts rave about how he plays and his compete. In a few years, he could be a legitimate bluechip prospect.
27. Adam Valentini, C, NCAA
Adam Valentini is an above average producer (equivalency of 24) April born, smaller center. There’s a lot of guys that share these similar attributes. However, Valentini, like Morozov, was a 17 year old forward playing in the NCAA… really uncommon. You look at players that played in the NCAA, a year ahead of when they should have started college, who also register a 20+ equivalency (like Morozov) over the past 30 years and you get… Toews, Celebrini, Valentini and Morozov.
This is the North American equivalent of a 17 year old playing in a pro Euro league… ahead of when most prospects would play there. And not only that but Valentini played for the University of Michigan, one of the top schools in the nation. He has a consensus ranking in the low 40s too. I debated between him and a few younger options for one of these remaining spots but that’s enough to tip the scale and get him into the back end of the Top 32.
28. Brooks Rogowski, C, OHL
Brooks Rogowski, a serious unit at 6’6”, 230 pounds, produced at an above average clip. He had an equivalency (normalized production) of 22. His consensus is 28th, essentially exactly where he slots here. And he’s also born June 28th… really young, maybe not even done growing yet (whether that’s a good thing or not is a different conversation).
There’s some concern by me that his higher production thus far stems from him being so big. He’s so much bigger than anybody he’s up against… is that leading him to his production? And that goes away when the league gets more challenging and there’s more bodies of a similar size to him? There’s probably some of that. But with a pick in the late 20s… the young age and runway to improve on that foundation… its certainly worth the risk here.
And if it all else fails, and the skill goes away when he can’t rely on the physical dominance, you can likely turn him into a 4th line checking center.
29. Yegor Shilov, C, QMJHL
Shilov is another guy with a consensus as a late 1st rounder. He’s got good size, is relatively young and, like Klepov, the Russian-born Shilov came over to North America a few years ago and has been able to produce at a relatively effective rate right away.
30. Alexander Command, C, J20
Young C with a well above average (but not elite) equivalency and a ranking in the 20s. Similar story to Shilov really. A C option that has some optimistic things about him in the model. It’ll take time but if the development hits just right over the next 3-4 years you could have a good middle six C option with a slight potential of turning into a 1C.
31. Adam Novotny, LW/RW, OHL
Similar to Belchetz, his consensus is 10th overall but he’s older and has the type of model archetype that doesn’t often lead to a star. The intangible nuance of scouting that the model is missing, everybody sees him as a top 10 pick. Looks like more of a late 1st in my model. But once you get to this point, a lot of players start to look very similar in the model. I’ll trust there’s something the scouts see in him to keep him in the HP Top 32 but he’s ~20 spots back of his consensus ranking here.
32. Ryan Roobroeck, C, OHL
Remember how the model doesn’t like droppers… guys that start off with a sky high equivalency in their D-1 and plateau or drop off in their DY. That is Roobroeck to a tee. The 6’4”, 209 pound center had an equivalency of 33 in his D-1. At this point, Roobroeck is well on his way to being a top 10 pick. In his DY, however, he fell to 29. As mentioned above, most elite 1st round draft picks will go up in their draft year by 25% or so. Especially if they stay in the same feeder league like Roobroeck did.
When you look at the players who have done this, the results are very bad indeed. There’s about 10 similar cases where the player fell off in the same league within the CHL, and none of them made it to 200 games in the NHL. Think Angelo Esposito, circa 2007. Esposito was regarded as a top 10 pick entering his draft year, fell off from his massive numbers in his D-1, ended up drafted at 20, never played a game in the NHL.
That’s where Roobroeck finds himself. Not a positive trajectory and one that likely gets him taken out of top 10 consideration. But Roobroeck is a massive body and plays C. Even if he isn’t going to be a top line offensive contributor like he was looking to be before this year… can he be a formidable 3rd line center at that size? Or can a team dial into the talent and trajectory he was on before this year and get him back on the star trajectory and turn him into something bigger than his draft slot? With a pick in the late 20s, early 30s, I would be willing to take the gamble.
Honorable mentions: Elton Hermansson, Thomas Vandenberg, Jonah Sivertson, Zigge Bratt and Matvei Kotkov