The Hockey Prospecting Re-Draft Series: 2013

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Here’s a refresher on the Hockey Prospecting re-draft approach…

Methodology & Technique

  • A first round re-draft
  • Players are chosen by their probabilities in the model but also based on their age and where they stand in the model. The Hockey Prospecting model is assessing where they are at the draft but also where they could go, based on previously history, in the future.
  • The top pick in each draft was left as is as they were always consensus and each have made the NHL directly after being drafted. The model takes over after the 1st overall pick.
  • Overagers: Overagers are not included in the top 30. There are times that the model sees overagers as more valuable. However, overagers have less runway left to improve in the model. As well, as a general rule of thumb, I wouldn’t take an overager in the 1st round (unless they were a really elite talent or the draft was exceptionally weak). I would be targeting them from the second round on.
  • The players are sorted by:
  • Grouping – 5 distinct groups within the model ranging from very high probability players to very low
  • Aggregate Probability – The summation of the player’s NHLer probability and Star probability
  • Round and Number – If players have equal probabilities, the model will pick out the one that was drafted first, assuming they were ranked higher and were seen as the better player

The Actual 2013 NHL Draft – Top 30

The 2013 Hockey Prospecting Re-Draft – Top 30

Results

The 2013 draft was a pretty solid draft that generated eight stars in total. The Hockey Prospecting draft, like the actual draft, saw MacKinnon and Barkov as the two best players from the draft. Seven years later, we look back and they were the best from the draft. MacKinnon and Barkov, born September 1 and September 2, respectively, were both almost young enough to be included in the 2014 draft instead. They both had NHLer probabilities over 80% and star probabilities over 40%. There was much talk at the draft of Jones or Drouin going second. Barkov was the clear 2nd best player by Hockey Prospecting, because of his age and very rare, elite profile.

Hockey Prospecting picks four players – Lindholm, Cammarata, Drouin and Petan – from position three to six who have sky high NHLer probabilities and moderate to high star probabilities… none of them become stars. Lindholm, who was actually drafted at 5th overall, has turned into a really solid two-way player but, to this point, not a star. Drouin has been underwhelming. Petan and Cammarata likely won’t make the NHL, in a full-time capacity. High likelihood NHLer Hunter Shinkaruk was taken 8th overall, instead 24th overall, he also likely won’t be making the NHL (he’s currently signed to the KHL).

Four players that jump way up from the deep rounds into the mid-first who have had moderate to strong success in the NHL were Lehkonen, Buchnevich, Guentzel ad Bjorgstrand.

Some of the bigger misses by employing the Hockey Prospecting method were: Morrissey, Mantha, Burakovsky and Theodore. Hockey Prospecting misses on the first three because their older age group and moderate equivalency in their draft year. They would have all fallen into the 2nd round. Theodore, a younger player with a moderate equivalency, falls just outside the first round to pick 34. Jones also would have fallen another 13 spots in the Hockey Prospecting draft. Jones, who was in the conversation for 1st overall, has amounted to a top pairing star defenseman.

Actual Results
2013Star ProducersAverage ProducersReplacement Producers100 GamersNHLers
Top 321003
Top 532005
Top 10541010
Top 20684117
Top 30794420
Hockey Prospecting Results
2013Star ProducersAverage ProducersReplacement Producers100 GamersNHLers
Top 321003
Top 522004
Top 1042016
Top 20551111
Top 30672315

If we break down the results in aggregate, the Hockey Prospecting re-draft finds six stars in the first round. The actual draft found seven in the first round. In total, the draft saw eight stars emerge – MacKinnon, Barkov, Monahan, Pulock, Jones, Guentzel, Theodore and Ristolainen. Hockey Prospecting finds Guentzel in the first round and then Theodore and Ristolainen would have been picked up by the middle of the second. The actual draft finds seven stars in the first round but doesn’t find Guentzel until the 3rd round.

In total, the Hockey Prospecting finds 15 NHLers thus far in the first round and 13 of them were at least average producers. The actual draft finds 20 NHLers, 16 were at least average producers. Overall, the Hockey Prospecting model performs well in 2013. It takes a different route and drafts players in different order but ends up at a similar place to the actual draft in terms of stars and NHLers. Limitations of the methodology of the Hockey Prospecting re-draft facilitated too many high gambles on non-1st round talents, like Petan and Cammarata for instance. But we digress.

Up next… the 2014 draft.

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