Here’s a refresher on the Hockey Prospecting re-draft approach…
Methodology & Technique
- A first round re-draft
- Players are chosen by their probabilities in the model but also based on their age and where they stand in the model. The Hockey Prospecting model is assessing where they are at the draft but also where they could go, based on previously history, in the future.
- The top pick in each draft was left as is as they were always consensus and each have made the NHL directly after being drafted. The model takes over after the 1st overall pick.
- Overagers: Overagers are not included in the top 30. There are times that the model sees overagers as more valuable. However, overagers have less runway left to improve in the model. As well, as a general rule of thumb, I wouldn’t take an overager in the 1st round (unless they were a really elite talent or the draft was exceptionally weak). I would be targeting them from the second round on.
- The players are sorted by:
- Grouping – 5 distinct groups within the model ranging from very high probability players to very low
- Aggregate Probability – The summation of the player’s NHLer probability and Star probability
- Round and Number – If players have equal probabilities, the model will pick out the one that was drafted first, assuming they were ranked higher and were seen as the better player
The Actual 2014 NHL Draft – Top 30
The 2014 Hockey Prospecting Re-Draft – Top 30
Results
The 2014 draft was another pretty solid draft that generated seven stars in total. What set this draft apart was the very top end was very good and Hockey Prospecting picks up. There were six players – Nylander, DeAngelo, Reinhart, Draisaitl, Fiala and Pastrnak – that entered the draft with a 50%+ star probability. Rarely do you see that many players in one draft with a star probability that high. The majority of these players went high – DeAngelo and Pastrnak are the two that jump way up, into the top 10 from the late 20s. As a result, factoring in first overall pick Ekblad (who didn’t look quite as good at the draft), five of the first seven players taken in the Hockey Prospecting re-draft end up stars.
Further down the draft, the Hockey Prospecting re-draft finds Brayden Point at pick 14 and Nikolaj Ehlers at 15. As we know, Point was actually, somehow, drafted in the 3rd round and has turned into an incredible player. A player that looks like Point very often goes in the first round. He certainly should have never made it out of the first round, let alone the second round.
| Actual Results | |||||
| 2014 | Star Producers | Average Producers | Replacement Producers | 100 Gamers | NHLers |
| Top 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Top 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| Top 10 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
| Top 20 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| Top 30 | 6 | 10 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
| Hockey Prospecting Results | |||||
| 2014 | Star Producers | Average Producers | Replacement Producers | 100 Gamers | NHLers |
| Top 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 |
| Top 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| Top 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Top 20 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| Top 30 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
If we break down the results in aggregate, the Hockey Prospecting re-draft finds all seven stars in the draft while the actual draft finds six in the first round. What’s even more incredible is Hockey Prospecting finds all seven stars by the 15th pick. The actual draft only had four stars by the 15th pick, missing Pastrnak, DeAngelo and Point at this point. The actual draft doesn’t find all seven stars until pick 79 (Point).
The actual draft, however, does find more NHLers in the first round. The Hockey Prospecting re-draft found 18 while the actual draft found 20. The actual draft found a higher degree of average producers than the Hockey Prospecting draft while the Hockey Prospecting re-draft was better able to find the stars.
Up next… the 2015 draft.